Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Lefty Starters and the GO/AO Ratio

The subtitle of this article should be The Curious Case of Xavier Cedeno. More on that later.

The GO/AO (ground outs/air outs) ratio is a squirrelly little stat. It doesn't necessarily mean anything in and of itself, but it helps us see a pitcher's tendencies (flyball pitcher, groundball pitcher or somewhere in the middle) and whether or not those tendencies are working for him. A groundball pitcher can get killed if he has weak infield defense behind him. A flyball pitcher can get killed if all of his flyballs get directed to the front rows of the Crawford Boxes.

With that said, a look at Astro minor league lefty pitchers who have predominantly been starters this season (stats through 8/23).

HIGHER GROUNDBALL RATIOS

Christopher Lee (GRN)
Lee has the highest groundball ratio at 2.52, but it isn't working in his favor (at least not yet) as he has a .300 BA and a HR/9 of 0.9.

Thomas Shirley (GCL/TCV)
In limited innings pitched, Shirley's groundball ratio of 2.40 is working well for him so far, with a .143 BA and HR/9 of 0.

Reymin Guduan (DSL)
Guduan's 2.32 GO/AO has translated well into a .193 BA against and a HR/9 of 0.

LOWER GROUNDBALL RATIOS

J.A. Happ (MLB/OKC)
Happ has a 0.65 MLB/0.75 OKC split on his GO/AO. As a flyball pitcher, he has struggled with a .290 BA and 1.28 HR/9 rate at the major league level. In his stint at OKC, he has fared much better with a .177 BA and 0 HR/9 rate.

Luis Cruz (LAN/LEX)
Cruz' combined GO/AO for the season is 0.79. He was getting lit up in his short stint at Lancaster where he posted a 0.33 GO/AO, .407 BA and a 4.85 HR/9 rate. At Lexington, his numbers are better since he increased his groundball ratio to 0.90 and lowered his BA against to .274, but his HR/9 is still fairly high at 1.67 HR/9.

Ricardo Batista (GRN)
Batista's GO/AO of 0.88 has translated into a .235 BA and a 0.4 HR/9.

THE CURIOUS CASE OF XAVIER CEDENO

Xavier Cedeno (CC/OKC) had been used the bulk of the season as a starter at Corpus Christi where he had a groundball ratio of 2.00 (which is fairly typical of his entire minor league career) and a BA against of .263. Since being used primarily in relief at OKC, he has posted a GO/AO of 0.87 which has translated into a .306 BA. His HR/9 has remained relatively unchanged at around 0.6, but his ERA jumped from 3.95 to 7.80.

So why has Cedeno suddenly become a flyball pitcher at OKC? I realize that he has had a limited number of relief appearances and IP in relief, but the difference is striking enough that it may be worth following.

THE IN-BETWEENERS (FROM HIGH GROUNDBALL RATIOS TO LOW)

1.91/.242BA/0.2HR/9 - Kyle Hallock (TCV)
1.88/.274BA/0.7HR/9 - Dallas Keuchel (CC/OKC)
1.66/.283BA/1.1HR/9 - Alex Sogard (TCV) - no longer being used as starter
1.30/.295BA/0.5HR/9 - Andy Van Hekken (OKC)
1.11/.250BA/0.9HR/9 - Brett Oberholtzer (CC) - 0.88 for full season
1.07/.230BA/0.2HR/9 - Geronimo Franzua (DSL)
0.97/.239BA/0.5HR/9 - Ambiorix De Leon (DSL)

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