Monday, October 6, 2014

Arizona Fall League Salt River Rafters Season Preview

Our intrepid Arizona correspondent, Wallee Wright, has been writing about the Arizona Fall League faster than I can post them! If you missed his first installment from Friday, do yourself a favor and check it out. Today he continues with his excellent preview of the Salt River Rafters (the Astros team).

>>>>>>><<<<<<<

Part I

Tomorrow is opening night for the Arizona Fall League Salt River Rafters so it seems like a good time to acquaint you with the Astros on the roster. Later on we’ll look at the prospects provided by Arizona, Colorado, Miami and Minnesota as well.

This should be an interesting team for no other reason than the state of affairs within the contributing organizations: the Astros have a new field manager and potential changes to their coaching staff; Arizona has a new GM who was formerly a players’ agent and MLB pitcher but no manager or coaching staff as yet; Colorado has made no changes in spite of years of ownership missteps and an aging nucleus of high profile, low impact players; Miami is totally reinventing itself as a result of ownership-induced changes over the dead bodies of its former professional staff; and, Minnesota has just fired its well-respected manager of the past decade-plus while continuing to try to assemble and retain a competitive team on the cheap.

The Astro contingent is not without questions of their own this year. They’re led by Mark Appel, 23, the 2013 number one overall draft choice who was an apparent disaster earlier this year at High-A Lancaster, precipitated a crisis by simply throwing a bullpen session at Minute Maid, and then apparently acquitted himself well in the last month of the season at Corpus Christi. Perhaps we’ll find out which is the real Mark Appel during the next six weeks.

Joining Appel will be another star-crossed but highly-rated right-handed pitcher, Vincent Velasquez, 22, a 2010 second round draft pick out of high school. Velasquez missed the entire 2011 season on Weiland Island, was treated rather rudely in 2013 at High-A Lancaster, then came back this year to average nearly 12 strikeouts per nine while compiling a 3.74 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in the same company. Can Velasquez stay injury-free while maintaining the same level of dominance in a league filled with generally older, high-ceiling, prospects?

Vince Velasquez - September 2014
Photo by Jayne Hansen

Tyson Perez, 24, a seventeenth-round pick in 2011, is the third right-hander provided by Houston and another hurler in transition after two and one-half seasons in the High-A California League. After a season and one-half in the Astro team starter-reliever concept at Lancaster Tyson moved up to Double-A Corpus Christi in May as a reliever/closer and was an ‘overnight’ success, going 4-0 with 11 saves in 23 appearances and a 2.09 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. In the next six weeks Tyson will have an opportunity to prove this season at Corpus was not a fluke while facing a much more accomplished level of competition … is a trip to Fresno or Houston in the offing?

The final pitcher provided by Houston is a southpaw, Mitch Lambson, 24, a 2011 nineteenth-round pick and reliever drafted out of Arizona State. Unlike Perez, Mitch has never started a game in his career with the Astros, but has accumulated a 17-12 record with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.090 WHIP in 207 innings and 126 appearances from Rookie ball to Double-A Corpus Christi. But like Perez, Lambson is looking to build upon an outstanding 23 appearance stint with the Hooks and possibly punch his ticket to Fresno, if not Houston in 2015 … will a return to the desert be ‘just the ticket’ for Mitch?

Catching these four hurlers will be Tyler Heineman, 23, an eighth round pick in 2012 who has moved rapidly from Low-A through High-A to Double-A on the strength of his throwing arm, cutting down nearly half of the attempted steals over the course of his past three years. At both Tri-City and Lancaster Tyler had demonstrated a more than adequate hit tool as well, but this past season at Corpus Christi both the hit and power tools appear to have regressed, which is unfortunate because he has also demonstrated a rare commodity in catchers – speed enough to have racked up four triples at Lancaster and three more this year at Corpus. Does Tyler have the offensive chops to be an effective major league receiver, or were his earlier successes a function of his having experience playing for an outstanding college program at UCLA?

Third base is an underperforming position for the Houston club, and once again this year the Astros are sending a promising prospect to Arizona, this time in the form of Rio Ruiz, 20, a 2012 fourth round pick out of high school. Rio has been fast-tracked through Rookie, A and High-A ball over the past three years in hopes that the hitting tool he demonstrated in high school would finally come forth in his professional efforts – which it finally did in 2014 at Lancaster. The next six weeks may not provide an answer as to whether it was the high altitude and hot weather of the California League that fueled the emergence of the tool that had been lacking, but it will provide an opportunity to see how Rio performs facing high-ceiling pitching talent. Should ‘Matty D’ be worried? [NOTE FROM JAYNE: Ruiz had a slow start in 2013 in Quad Cities, but improved every single month at the plate, crescendoing in a terrific August and even better post-season.]

Andrew Aplin, 23, is another Arizona State Sun Devil, drafted in the fifth round in 2012 and now returning to the desert in hopes of elevating his future chances of breaking into an Astros outfield that has every appearance of being set for years to come. Aplin is another center fielder in a system loaded with centerfielders, and, like several in front of him has not demonstrated a consistent hitting tool nor sufficient base-stealing skills to force his way onto the big club. He is, however, still very young and the AFL might provide him the opportunity to improve both his visibility as well as his chances for making it to the majors … is this a make or break assignment for Andrew? [NOTE FROM JAYNE: Aplin's outstanding defense is the cornerstone of his game, but he will need to hit more consistently.]

Every Wednesday super-utility man Joe Sclafani, 24, will have an opportunity to join his Rafter and Astro teammates in an actual ballgame … such is the life of a ‘Taxi-Squad’ member, even one who was a fourteenth round pick in 2012. A genuine rarity, an Ivy Leaguer who can actually punish the horse-hide, Joe will certainly get more opportunities as the thirty-game season progresses because injuries are inevitable … just ask Jason Castro. Equally rare is the fact that Joe’s hitting has improved as he climbed from Low-A to Triple-A … perhaps the AFL will give him the opportunity to demonstrate that his glove can catch up.

Part II

The Salt River Rafters preview continues with a look at the key players assigned by the five major league clubs filling the team roster and a quick glance at the folks who will divvy up playing time for all these high-ceiling prospects, the team’s manager and staff.

The Miami Marlins provided the manager for the Rafters, Andy Haines, 2014 manager of the New Orleans Zephyrs of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. Pitching coach for the Rafters will be Josh Miller, 2014 pitching coach for your short season, Appalachian League, Greeneville Astros. Even though the Appy Astros disappointed overall this season, the pitching staff finished middle of the pack in both ERA and WHIP.

The Colorado Rockies are providing the hitting instruction through Kevin Riggs, who just completed a very successful second year managing the Double-A Texas League Tulsa Drillers … ironically the last for the Rox in Tulsa, who will become the 2015 affiliate of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Diamondbacks and Twins will provide the Trainers for the Rafters, a very important position given the injury history of two or three of the premier players on the roster.

Pitching appears to be the strength of the Rafters with Top-100 pitching prospects Mark Appel, Archie Bradley and Eddie Butler leading the way. We’ve already remarked upon Mark, so let’s take a quick look at the other better known pitching prospects.

Bradley, who just turned 22 two months ago, is the top prospect of the Diamondbacks who, in the opinion of many here in the desert, should have made his major league debut this past March. Troubled by either shoulder soreness or just D-Back neglect, Archie struggled at Reno after making the Australia trip with the Arizona team. Another pitcher of note from the ‘Backs is RHP Jimmy Sherfy.

Although bothered by rotator cuff soreness this year Butler, 23 and the Top-100 26th-ranked prospect, did receive a September call-up by Colorado though the unimpressive results were a far cry from his remarkable 2013 AAA minor league season. In addition to Butler and also from the Rox, Christian Bergman, 26, is unranked as a prospect but made his major league debut in Denver late this year with more respectable results.

Though I don’t know this for a fact, I have to believe the Astros’ Joe Sclafani was separated at birth from RHP Anthony DeSclafani, though Joe claims to have been born four days later on the other coast … huummm, maybe Jayne will delve a little deeper into this in one of her on-site interviews next season. DeSclafani finished his season with the Miami Marlins and posted very respectable numbers in both a starting and relief role, but the guess here is that he will be focused on a transition to reliever under his Triple-A manager Andy Haines.

While pitching is the Rafters’ strength on paper, the hitting side is not without its own stars, including the Top-100 number one prospect, outfielder Byron Buxton of the Twins. This is a return visit for Byron, having been here last year before suffering a wrist injury early on in 2014 that limited him to 137 plate appearances all year. Only 20, Buxton had been ranked number one pre-2014 by Baseball America, MLB.com, and Baseball Prospectus, a rare trifecta agreement among the three rating services. Buxton is not alone, however, among position players.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send two players received as return in trades for Justin Upton and Brandon McCarthy that became part of the reason for terminating GM Kevin Tower. Both 3B/1B Brandon Drury, 22, obtained for from the Braves for Upton and C/3B/1B Peter O’Brien, 24, received back from the Yankees for McCarthy, are the prototypical one-dimensional power hitters that the ‘Backs have preferred since their inception.

The Colorado Rockies have included SS/3B Trevor Story in their contingent, hoping I’m sure to find out whether Trevor is the .332/.436/.582 banger they had at Modesto in the California League or the .200/.302/.380 hitter that showed up at Double-A Tulsa – Astros fans already know the answer to that question but we’ll not spoil the surprise for the Rox.

And Minnesota sent an entire outfield to Arizona, including in addition to Buxton, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, their tenth and nineteenth ranked prospects. Rosario, 23, drafted in the fourth round out of Puerto Rico has a little pop, plays all OF positions and also plays a respectable second base. Kepler, only 21, who also plays all three outfield positions and a little first base, has shown doubles and triples speed but not the kind of power expected of a corner infielder.

And that concludes the Arizona Fall League preview … I’ve touched upon eighteen of the thirty-seven players assigned the Salt River Rafters, but if there is one thing you can bet on it’s that the team star will turn out to be one of the nineteen not even mentioned. That’s because the game is played by young men between the chalk lines and not by old men sitting in front of a computer.

~ Wallee Wright ~

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.